| n the half-year report as of June 30, 2024, Pozzi Milano reported sales of finished products totaling €9.65 million, up from €9.32 million as of June 30, 2023, marking an increase of 3.6%. EBITDA for the period amounted to €0.90 million, registering a decrease of 22.2% compared to €1.15 million in the first half of the previous year. As a result, the EBITDA margin also declined, dropping from 11.9% in 1H23A to 9.1% in the recently concluded semester. EBIT followed the same trend, decreasing from €0.93 million to €0.71 million, with an EBIT margin of 7.3% (vs. 9.6% in 1H23A). Similarly, Net Income saw a significant contraction, falling from €0.65 million to €0.32 million (-50.6%).. In light of the results published in the 1H24A interim report, we are adjusting our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a production value for FY24E of €20.40 million and EBITDA of €2.10 million. The downward revision of year-end revenues, which prudently takes into account the situation in the reference market, also affects profitability, resulting in a contraction. For the following years, we expect production value to increase to €24.50 million (CAGR: FY23A – FY26E: 3.2%) in FY26E, with EBITDA reaching €2.95 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.0%, up from €2.45 million in FY23A, corresponding to a margin of 11.0%. . We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Pozzi Milano based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 43.7 million. The target price is therefore € 1.25 (prev. € 1.50), with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |