SIAV S.p.A. /04.08.2022

Ultima Ricerca SIAV S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 09.10.2024

  Revenues amounted to € 16.12 million, essentially in line with the € 16.52 million recorded in 1H23A. EBITDA stood at € 3.06 million, registering a growth of 38.2% compared to € 2.22 million in the same semester of the previous year. The EBITDA margin increased by 5 percentage points compared to 1H23A, reaching 18.3%. EBIT amounted to € 0.73 million, representing an increase of 256.8% compared to 1H23A. The Net Income was € -0.48 million, essentially in line with the negative figure of € -0.47 million in 1H23A. On a balance sheet level, the NFP decreased from € 19.63 million at the end of FY23A to € 18.93 million in 1H24A. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H24A, we are revising estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate FY24E production value at € 34.10 million, with EBITDA of € 6.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.9%. For subsequent years, we expect production value to increase to € 43.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 8.3%) in FY26E, with EBITDA of € 9.90 million (corresponding to a margin of 23.0%), up from € 5.34 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Siav on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 59.9 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Siav was calculated to be € 59.4 million (including a 25% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 59.6 million. The target price is € 6.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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