Sebino S.p.A.

17/06/2020

On 17 June 2020, Sebino S.p.A. obtained admission to negotiate ordinary shares on AIM Italia, a multilateral negotiations system organized and managed by Borsa Italiana. Negotiations began on 19 June 2020.

Integrae SIM acted as Nomad, Global Coordinator, Private Placement Bookrunner, and Specialist of the Issuer.

The admission took place following the placement of a total of 1,782,000 ordinary cum warrant shares, including greenshoe, all in the capital increase, mainly aimed at institutional and professional investors which generated a demand from investors of 3.69x higher than the collection.

The total equivalent of the offer, at the placement price of euro 2.00 per share, is approximately equal to euro 3.6 million

The enterprise. Sebino Antincendio, founded in Bergamo (BG) in 1982, is an Italian company active in the design, development, and installation of fire and security systems. The Company integrates these activities with a coordinated maintenance service through a 24/7 control room.

Ultima Ricerca Sebino S.p.A.

UPDATE

In FY25A, the Group reported revenues of € 93.58 million, up 27.4% from € 73.43 million in FY24A and above our estimate of € 87.90 million. EBITDA amounted to € 20.52 million, increasing by 38.6% compared to € 14.80 million in FY24A and exceeding expectations of € 19.40 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21.9%, improving from 20.2% in the previous year. EBIT also showed a positive trend, reaching € 17.47 million (+44.2% YoY), with an EBIT margin of 18.7%, while Net Income stood at € 11.45 million, up 36.6% compared to € 8.38 million in FY24A and broadly in line with our forecasts. From a balance sheet perspective, net financial position improved significantly, moving from a cash-positive position of € 3.26 million to € 10.04 million.

Following the publication of the FY25A annual report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E revenues at € 110.00 million and EBITDA at € 24.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.9%. Looking ahead, we expect revenues to increase to € 144.20 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 15.5%), with EBITDA reaching € 32.75 million in FY28E (22.7% margin), up from € 20.52 million in FY25A (21.9% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 13.89 million by FY28E. We conducted the valuation of FOPE’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 1.0% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 279.6 million. The equity value of FOPE based on market multiples is € 263.9 million. The average equity value therefore amounts to approximately € 271.7 million. We set a target price of € 50.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile.