International Care Company /08.12.2021

Ultima Ricerca International Care Company

• UPDATE – 26.04.2024

  The Company’s revenues at the end of FY23A stood at € 6.77 million, marking a growth of 21.6% compared to the figure of € 5.57 million for FY22A, and in line with our estimate of € 6.80 million. EBITDA for the period, equal to € -0.32 million, was an improvement on our estimate of € -0.50 million, and substantially in line with the value for the previous financial year of € -0.34 million. EBIT came in at € -1.06 million, in line with the result of the previous year of € -1.00 million, and better than our expectation of € -1.15 million. Consequently, the Net Income was also negative at € -0.90 million. The NFP came in at a cash positive € 0.51 million, slightly up on last year’s figure of € 0.45 million (cash positive). In light of the results published in the annual report for 2023, we have updated our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 9.80 million, and an EBITDA of € 0.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 8.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 12.95 million (CAGR 23A-25E: 20.4%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 2.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 20.5%), up from € -0.32 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of -4.7%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a cash positive NFP for FY26E of € 5.04 million. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ICC based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 14.3 million. The target price is € 3.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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