Pasquarelli Auto S.p.A. /25.05.2023

Ultima Ricerca Pasquarelli Auto S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 04.04.2024

  The value of production for FY23A amounted to € 248.23 million, up 21.8% compared to € 203.81 million in FY22A, and in line with our estimate of € 243.00 million. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 9.51 million, down 1.8% compared to € 9.69 million in FY22A, with an EBITDA Margin equal to 3.8%, down from last year’s margin of 4.8%. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 2.00 million, came in equal to € 7.51 million, marking a decrease of 7.7% compared to the FY22A result (€ 8.13 million). The company’s Net Income stands at € 4.24 million, compared to € 5.50 million recorded in FY22A, and the € 7.35 million reported in our previous estimates.  In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY24E value of production of € 315.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 15.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 435.50 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 20.6%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 27.30 million (corresponding to a margin of 6.3%), up compared to € 9.51 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 3.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Pasquarelli Auto based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 81.1 million. Using market multiples, the equity value was calculated to be € 105.3 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 93.2 million. The target price is € 3.75, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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