Sourcesense

9/08/2019

On 9 August 2019, Sourcesense S.p.A. obtained admission to negotiate ordinary shares on AIM Italia, a multilateral negotiations system organized and managed by Borsa Italiana. Negotiations began on 11 August 2020.

Integrae SIM acted as Nomad, Global Coordinator, and Specialist of the Issuer.

The share capital of Sourcesense S.p.A. will be represented by a total of 7,872,500 ordinary shares (8,275,500 assuming the full fiscal year of the greenshoe option) with a free float of 29.08% (32.53% assuming the full fiscal year of the greenshoe option), for a planned capitalization of approximately equal to € 10.2 million.

The enterprise. Sourcesense is a company, operating in the IT sector in the Italian and English markets, a leader in cloud-native solutions based on “Open Source” technologies and an ideal partner to face a path of digital evolution that also goes through the transformation of organizational structures, working methods and operating practices. Offering itself as a technology provider, Sourcesense supports enterprise-class companies, leaders in their reference markets, and belonging to all business sectors (Industry & Services, Telco & Utilities, Publishing & Media, Banking & Insurance, Fashion & Gaming, and Public Administration).

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UPDATE

In FY25A, the Group reported revenues of € 93.58 million, up 27.4% from € 73.43 million in FY24A and above our estimate of € 87.90 million. EBITDA amounted to € 20.52 million, increasing by 38.6% compared to € 14.80 million in FY24A and exceeding expectations of € 19.40 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21.9%, improving from 20.2% in the previous year. EBIT also showed a positive trend, reaching € 17.47 million (+44.2% YoY), with an EBIT margin of 18.7%, while Net Income stood at € 11.45 million, up 36.6% compared to € 8.38 million in FY24A and broadly in line with our forecasts. From a balance sheet perspective, net financial position improved significantly, moving from a cash-positive position of € 3.26 million to € 10.04 million.

Following the publication of the FY25A annual report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E revenues at € 110.00 million and EBITDA at € 24.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.9%. Looking ahead, we expect revenues to increase to € 144.20 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 15.5%), with EBITDA reaching € 32.75 million in FY28E (22.7% margin), up from € 20.52 million in FY25A (21.9% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 13.89 million by FY28E. We conducted the valuation of FOPE’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 1.0% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 279.6 million. The equity value of FOPE based on market multiples is € 263.9 million. The average equity value therefore amounts to approximately € 271.7 million. We set a target price of € 50.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile.