NVP / 03.12.2019

Ultima Ricerca NVP

• UPDATE – 30.10.2024

  In the consolidated half-year report as of June 30th, 2024, NVP recorded revenues of € 14.78 million, marking an 18.8% increase compared to € 12.43 million in the first half of 2023. The Group’s EBITDA for the first half of 2024 reached € 3.82 million, showing a slight increase from € 3.71 million in 1H23A. The EBITDA margin stood at 25.3%, down from 29.2% in the same period of the previous year. EBIT came in at € 1.37 million, a decrease from € 1.69 million in the first half of 2023. The EBIT margin, calculated on the value of production, declined to 9.1% from 13.3% in 1H23A. Net Income amounted to € 0.26 million, down from € 0.39 million in the first half of 2023. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H24A, we are slightly adjusting our estimates for both the current year and the upcoming years. Specifically, we forecast a FY24E value of production of € 35.50 million with an EBITDA of € 10.25 million, reflecting a margin of 31.1%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 50.50 million by FY26E, with an EBITDA of € 16.80 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 35.0%), up from € 7.75 million in FY23A (equivalent to an EBITDA margin of 28.2%). We conducted the equity value assessment of NVP based on the DCF methodology and multiples from a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 78.47 million. The equity value of NVP using market multiples is € 65.89 million (including a 25.0% discount). This results in an average equity value of approximately € 72.18 million. The target price is € 9.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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