Emma Villas S.p.A. /27.09.2023

Ultima Ricerca Emma Villas S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 22.10.2024

  The value of production stands at €8.10 million, marking a growth of 4.6% compared to €7.74 million recorded in 1H23A. EBITDA, amounting to €-4.33 million, shows a decline compared to the previous semester’s figure of €-2.54 million. The EBITDA Margin, at -53.4%, is lower than the -32.9% recorded in 2023, despite a general increase in operating costs to support revenue growth. EBIT amounts to €-4.67 million (€-2.86 million in 1H23A), after depreciation and amortization of €0.35 million, down by 63.6% compared to 1H23A (€-2.86 million). Net Income stands at €-3.59 million compared to €-2.191 million recorded in 1H23A. On the balance sheet, we note that the NFP improved from €3.20 million cash positive in FY23A to €13.98 million cash positive in 1H24A. In light of the results published in the 1H24A report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY24E value of production at €35.85 million and EBITDA at €3.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 8.4%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to €50.45 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 15.5%) in FY26E, with EBITDA amounting to €6.05 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.0%), up from €1.91 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 5.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Emma Villas based on the DCF method and on multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 38.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Emma Villas was calculated as € 35.1 million (including a 25.0% discount). The average equity value is approximately € 36.6 million. The target price is € 5.25, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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