Circle / 24.10.2018

Ultima Ricerca Circle

• UPDATE – 08.10.2024

  The value of production amounted to € 7.27 million, compared to a value of € 7.16 million for 1H23A (€ 6.62 million in 1H23A*), marking a 1.5% increase (+9.8% vs 1H23A*).EBITDA stood at € 1.75 million, down by 10.7% compared to € 1.96 million in the first half of last year, and up by 11.7% compared to the normalised 1H23A* figure (€ 1.57 million). EBIT, after depreciation and amortisation of € 0.46 million, amounted to € 1.29 million (€ 1.51 million in 1H23A and € 0.97 million in 1H23A*). Net Income reached € 1.03 million, down by 8.3% compared to € 1.13 million in 1H23A, but up by 43.3% compared to 1H23A*. In light of the published 1H24A half-year results, we fully confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 15.70 million, and a EBITDA of € 3.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 24.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 30.35 million (CAGR 23A-27E: 23.1%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 7.95 million (corresponding to a margin of 26.2%), up from € 3.19 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 24.1%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Circle based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 49.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Circle was calculated as € 47.3 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 48.5 million. The target price is € 10.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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