| The Group has announced the completion of two strategic operations: the acquisition of 100.0% of Matildi+Partners Srl, a company with consolidated expertise in infrastructure, particularly steel bridges and viaducts, and the integration of 66.67% of Strucinspect GmbH, which expands the Group’s offering with AI-based solutions for predictive maintenance. In this context, following the recent acquisitions and the effectiveness of its internal growth strategy, the Group has reported a backlog of € 40.00 million as of January 31, 2025 (compared to € 30.00 million in June 2024), with visibility through 2029. In light of the recent operations and the updated backlog, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a value of production of € 8.50 million for FY24E and an EBITDA of € 2.75 million, corresponding to a 32.4% margin (calculated on the value of production). For the following years, we expect the value of production to grow to € 21.00 million in FY27E (CAGR 23A-27E: 31.5%), with EBITDA reaching € 6.90 million, reflecting a 32.9% margin, up from € 2.54 million in FY23A. Given the lack of comparable companies, we conducted Franchetti’s equity valuation solely using the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, includes a specific risk factor of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 87.9 million. The target price is € 10.70, with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk level. |
