ESPE S.p.A. /20.02.2024

Ultima Ricerca ESPE S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 14.10.2024

  ESPE reported a value of production for 1H24A of € 26.73 million, showing a stable result compared to the 1H23A figure of € 26.83 million. EBITDA stands at € 3.28 million, marking a significant increase (+137.9%) compared to 1H23A, which amounted to €1.38 million, resulting in an EBITDA Margin of 12.3%, up from 5.1% in the first half of last year. EBIT, calculated net of amortization and depreciation of € 1.04 million, also improved compared to the 1H23A value (€ 0.59 million), reaching € 2.25 million in the first half of 2024. Net Income is € 1.30 million, showing a sharp increase compared to € 0.43 million recorded in 1H23A. In light of the results published in the interim financial statements for 1H24A, we prudently adjust our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a value of production for FY24E of € 70.00 million and an EBITDA of € 7.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 10.0%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 111.50 million in FY26E, with an EBITDA of € 13.95 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.5%), up from € 4.16 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 7.0%). We conducted the equity value assessment of ESPE based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 68.5 million. The equity value of ESPE using market multiples amounts to € 35.8 million (including a 25.0% discount). This results in an average equity value of approximately € 52.2 million. The target price is € 4.40 (previously € 4.15), with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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